Project title: Developing a Decision Support System for Agricultural Commodity Market

                       Outlook

Project leader: Dr. Anjani Kumar

Project team: NCAP: Dr. Shiv Kumar, Dr. Rajni Jain, Dr P. Shinoj

                         IARI:    Dr. V.C. Mathur,  Dr I. Sekar

Background:

There is the increasingly felt need for timely and reliable information on the likely demand, production, trade and prices of important agricultural commodities of the country for a sound agricultural policy.  This project proposes to provide such information that is of utmost importance in serving the welfare interests of producers and consumers and would be useful for the government in  facilitating efficient functioning of markets, improving food management systems, inducing optimum input use and targeting investments for accelerate agricultural growth.

Objectives:

1.    To document and discuss the existing systems for generating commodity outlook information in India;

2.    To review the existing support systems and models used by various countries and institutions/organizations for preparing commodity outlooks;

3.    To develop and/or adapt models with technology, producer, consumer and trade core systems to generate short-, and medium term market outlook for selected commodities;

4.    To build a decision support system on the basis of the selected models and suggest technology and policy dimensions to attain the specific goals of price stabilization, supply, income, national and household food nutritional security and consumer and producer welfare.

Study area: All India

Methodology :

1. Normalized quadratic profit function approach to estimate the elasticities of producer core systems.

2. Three stage frame work AIDS model to estimate demand parameters and elasticities

3. Simultaneous equations for determination of output and factor prices

4. Marketed surplus and income model

5. Cost of production model

Key findings:

New Project

Funding agency: NAIP